Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 23.751751 28.456438 33.634123 39.726541 46.669237 54.304464 63.305274
2025-06-15 17.296762 23.561416 31.145825 40.877250 52.895532 67.111250 85.044906
2025-06-22 12.820922 19.419032 28.045456 39.881261 55.402112 74.750933 100.346397
2025-06-29 10.579336 17.510974 27.162523 41.128194 60.308901 85.183501 119.258006
2025-07-06 7.944817 14.449771 24.120747 38.887707 60.115258 88.714076 129.208867
2025-07-13 6.830387 13.419894 23.746564 40.192995 64.675177 98.617891 147.872093
2025-07-20 5.883299 12.455542 23.284509 41.219993 68.784033 107.997410 166.152403
2025-07-27 5.184395 11.770269 23.133999 42.631902 73.456516 118.308332 186.090167
2025-08-03 4.536187 11.043235 22.791974 43.649092 77.519856 127.857269 205.271764
2025-08-10 3.760606 9.905141 21.571721 43.064440 78.984761 133.574714 219.080887
2025-08-17 3.255544 9.211163 21.038895 43.547139 82.108933 141.840901 236.860166
2025-08-24 2.709539 8.302703 19.970793 42.962671 83.400229 147.299693 250.593672
2025-08-31 2.097925 7.127532 18.294816 41.270802 82.993068 150.523900 261.796582
2025-09-07 1.835570 6.755852 18.209609 42.542961 87.774646 162.265681 286.699208
2025-09-14 1.449555 5.927925 17.007812 41.518426 88.421164 167.326130 301.349669
2025-09-21 1.275997 5.653555 16.986174 42.806095 93.255278 179.420629 327.508188
2025-09-28 0.939918 4.739721 15.304193 40.492543 91.289128 180.040070 335.265115
2025-10-05 0.833180 4.555272 15.363422 41.840505 96.237783 192.542963 362.690704
2025-10-12 0.728431 4.337268 15.298361 42.900878 100.681359 204.334121 389.310152
2025-10-19 0.651084 4.195769 15.410818 44.358398 105.966725 217.774895 419.063372
2025-10-26 0.569978 4.003428 15.350405 45.408256 110.492136 230.031555 447.189563
2025-11-02 0.455804 3.601050 14.616751 44.804846 111.644872 236.311565 465.406131
2025-11-09 0.386598 3.375613 14.359492 45.303035 115.054331 246.754423 490.991454